Math On White-Collar Job Elimination?

More articles this past week with headlines around CEOs talking about how AI will eliminate jobs. Latest article in the WSJ on July 3rd had a statement, "AI is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S." I want to see the calculations. Anyone seen them? or done them? 

A few truths: 

1. AI and especially genAI are very disruptive technologies that will change how many of us work (and shop, play games, learn, live, and more). 

2. We will need fewer employees in any number of jobs. In the mid-1800's, more than 50% of the US population worked in agriculture. By 1900, it was less than half. This century? Less than 2%. Electricity and gas in the home lower time spent cooking. High unemployment rates should scare everyone for many reasons. 

3. Eliminating an hour a day of my work doesn't equate to eliminating one out of eight employees. When is the last time you left work and thought, "there's not another thing I could do today." Yes, we'll likely need fewer employees in some roles. We'll also be able to do more things. Time will tell where we lose absolute numbers and where we gain.

4. Bloated organizations may do better initially by eliminating processes, procedures, and policies so that they can move faster rather than automating what they do today. hashtag#businessprocessreengineering101 

5. Employees do more than execute digital tasks. 

6. Organizations would be better served by considering how AI improves the quality of their products, services, or experiences (see Hidden Valley article). 

Busywork is still busywork regardless of who or what does it. 

Read a smart article in WSJ today about Clorox - "Hidden Valley Ranch Owner Loves AI." (July 7, 2025 - by Christopher Mims). They are using AI to generate new insights, create more personalized ads, and help employees by upleveling their prompts. The executives seem to have really used the tools and developed realistic assessments of their abilities and limitations today.